Basically, here’s what I think it is. AT&T and Apple are not going to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, to upgrade the activation infrastructure of hardware, software and network, for a onetime surge of activations. I think they were fully aware that this might happen, and essentially, their risk analysis concluded that it would cost more to build up an infrastructure rather then satisfy customers. Their rational is that customers have already purchased the phone and signed their contract, so business as usual.
Look at last year as an example, I, along with hundreds of thousands of other people had bricks for four days, but essentially none of us returned our phones due to the frustration of not having immediate activation. We’ve all but forgotten about it and Apple and AT&T know this. The storm will blow over in a couple of days, or maybe weeks with this rollout, and people will be so happy when they’re activated, they’ll simply forgive and forget. Everyone will soon be emailing, browsing and texting as though nothing has happened. Apple and AT&T will save a lot of money not having to build out extra capacity for a one-time surge in initial activations.
I’ve got my 2.0 upgrade on my original iPhone, so I’m content with that for now. I think I will sit this out for a couple of weeks until the activation fiasco settles down.